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Bulgaria · 10 kWp reference system

Sofia solar forecast and PV yield

Photo: Deensel,CC BY 2.0. Cropped, resized and converted to WebP by GridPassport.

Forecast target: . Any “tomorrow” label on this page refers to this dated target.

Tomorrow's forecast
42.4 kWh
10 kWp reference system
Typical annual output
13,111 kWh
10 kWp reference system
Typical specific yield
1,311 kWh/kWp
Per year

Tuesday, September 1, 2026

About 42.4 kWh tomorrow

For a standard 10 kWp south-facing system in Sofia, GridPassport estimates 42.4 kWh on Tuesday, September 1, 2026, with a likely range of 33.7-50.2 kWh. The strongest production window is expected at 12:00-16:00 local time.

Updated Aug 31, 2026, 02:01 AM GMT+3 · fresh snapshot
Likely range
33.7-50.2 kWh
Strongest window
12:00-16:00
Confidence
medium
Forecast my solar output

How to read and use the data

Sofia solar forecast: daily weather versus long-term PV yield

The daily and annual figures answer different questions. Use the dated forecast to plan tomorrow, and the PVGIS specific yield to compare locations or estimate a typical year.

Dated, weather-based

Tomorrow's forecast

Tomorrow's value is a weather-based estimate for Tuesday, September 1, 2026: 42.4 kWh from the 10 kWp reference system, with a likely range of 33.7 kWh–50.2 kWh. It changes with the next weather forecast.

Multi-year climate baseline

PVGIS specific yield

Sofia's PVGIS specific yield is about 1,311 kWh/kWp per year. It is a multi-year climate benchmark, not a prediction for tomorrow or for this calendar year. In the PVGIS profile, July is typically the strongest month and December the weakest.

3, 5 and 10 kWp reference systems

Scale the same assumptions to your system size

SystemTomorrow estimate (likely range)PVGIS typical year
3 kWpTomorrow estimate (likely range)12.7 kWh10.1 kWh–15.1 kWhPVGIS typical year3,933 kWh/year
5 kWpTomorrow estimate (likely range)21.2 kWh16.9 kWh–25.1 kWhPVGIS typical year6,556 kWh/year
10 kWpTomorrow estimate (likely range)42.4 kWh33.7 kWh–50.2 kWhPVGIS typical year13,111 kWh/year

Linear reference scaling only: south-facing, 35° tilt and 14% system losses. It does not resize inverter clipping, shade or local roof constraints.

From forecast to a household plan

Battery, EV, heat pump and flexible loads

Treat the forecast as a gross solar-energy budget before household base load and conversion losses. The numbers support scheduling; they do not guarantee surplus.

Battery

Keep room for the solar window

Use 12:00-16:00 as the first candidate charging window. Battery state of charge, reserve settings and inverter limits still decide how much can be stored.

Heat pump

Shift only flexible thermal demand

If comfort controls allow it, place discretionary hot-water heating or pre-heating inside 12:00-16:00. Never override frost protection, hygiene cycles or manufacturer limits.

Large loads

Avoid stacking appliances

A 3 kWp system scales to about 12.7 kWh for the day before household use. Run flexible loads sequentially during the strongest hours rather than assuming all forecast energy is simultaneous power.

Local questions

Solar forecast FAQ

How much could a 5 kWp solar system produce tomorrow in Sofia?

Using the same south-facing, 35-degree and 14% loss assumptions, the 5 kWp estimate is 21.2 kWh for Tuesday, September 1, 2026, with a scaled likely range of 16.9 kWh–25.1 kWh. This is a linear reference-system estimate, not a site survey.

What does 1,311 kWh/kWp mean for Sofia?

It means the PVGIS multi-year profile produces about 1,311 kWh in a typical year for each installed kWp under the reference assumptions. A 5 kWp system therefore scales to about 6,556 kWh in a typical year before site-specific adjustments.

Is the Sofia forecast the same as the PVGIS annual estimate?

No. Tomorrow's forecast uses dated weather and an uncertainty band for one day. The PVGIS figure is a multi-year climate-based specific yield used for typical monthly and annual comparisons.

When should a battery, EV or heat pump use solar in Sofia?

Start with 12:00-16:00, then check household base load, battery headroom, EV energy required and heat-pump safety or comfort constraints. The forecast estimates daily energy, not guaranteed instantaneous surplus.

Typical year

Solar production month by month in Sofia

A standard 10 kWp system produces about 13,111 kWh in a typical year at this location. Monthly averages show seasonality; they are not a forecast for a specific year.

Values are kWh per month. Source: European Commission JRC PVGIS.

What makes Sofia's solar profile different?The typical annual yield is about 1,311 kWh per installed kWp, ranking Sofia #4 of 5 modelled locations in Bulgaria. That is 2% below the median of the 5 Bulgaria locations in this dataset. July is typically the strongest month and December the weakest; the stronger month produces about 2.4 times as much.

See the 12-month data
MonthMonthly outputDaily averageYear-to-year variation
MonthJanuaryMonthly output713 kWhDaily average23.0 kWh/dayYear-to-year variation±119 kWh
MonthFebruaryMonthly output858 kWhDaily average30.6 kWh/dayYear-to-year variation±117 kWh
MonthMarchMonthly output1,106 kWhDaily average35.7 kWh/dayYear-to-year variation±141 kWh
MonthAprilMonthly output1,208 kWhDaily average40.3 kWh/dayYear-to-year variation±147 kWh
MonthMayMonthly output1,260 kWhDaily average40.6 kWh/dayYear-to-year variation±145 kWh
MonthJuneMonthly output1,308 kWhDaily average43.6 kWh/dayYear-to-year variation±117 kWh
MonthJulyMonthly output1,491 kWhDaily average48.1 kWh/dayYear-to-year variation±121 kWh
MonthAugustMonthly output1,488 kWhDaily average48.0 kWh/dayYear-to-year variation±118 kWh
MonthSeptemberMonthly output1,225 kWhDaily average40.8 kWh/dayYear-to-year variation±119 kWh
MonthOctoberMonthly output1,077 kWhDaily average34.7 kWh/dayYear-to-year variation±191 kWh
MonthNovemberMonthly output763 kWhDaily average25.4 kWh/dayYear-to-year variation±140 kWh
MonthDecemberMonthly output616 kWhDaily average19.9 kWh/dayYear-to-year variation±129 kWh

Nearby solar forecasts

Compare Sofia with nearby cities

Tomorrow, in one email

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Method and data

Every city uses a 10 kWp system facing south at 35 degrees with 14% system losses. Tomorrow's figure combines hourly weather with GridPassport's PV production and uncertainty model. The monthly profile uses the European Commission JRC PVGIS multi-year climate series. Roof direction, shade, snow, dirt, inverter clipping and local weather can change real output.

CSV and JSON snapshots are published under CC BY 4.0 with source attribution.