GridPassport Research · Q1 2026 edition

Q1 2026: where European electricity markets moved most

Name: Q1 2026 European Electricity Volatility Report
Creator: GridPassport
License: https://gridpassport.com/electricity-prices/methodology/#data-license-attribution

See where wholesale prices fell below zero most often, which markets recorded the widest daily swings and when the cheapest three-hour windows most often appeared. The comparison uses published observations—not forecasts, household tariffs or modelled savings.

See the market results What this can mean at home

Period: Jan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026
Qualifying markets: 30
Published dates: 90/90
Latest source update: May 31, 2026, 18:36 GMT+2

What the data says

Three useful signals—not one opaque score.

Negative-price frequency, within-day spread and a recurring cheap window answer different questions, so this report keeps them separate.

Most negative-price days🇪🇸 Spain58.9%

53 of 90 qualifying days contained at least one reported interval below €0/MWh.

Widest average daily spread🇱🇹 Lithuania199.9 EUR/MWh

Mean of each observed day's high-minus-low wholesale reference price. This is not a household tariff spread.

Most common cheapest 3h window02:00-05:00local market time

The most frequent label across 537 qualifying market-day observations; individual markets differ.

Q1 2026 findings

The events behind the headline numbers.

This is the first complete quarterly baseline in the archive. Like-for-like change reporting begins with the next edition.

Broadest negative-price dayMar 22, 202617 markets

At least one negative interval appeared in 17 of 30 qualifying observed markets.

Widest single observed daily spread🇪🇪 Estonia842.0 EUR/MWh

Mar 30, 2026; one dated market observation, not a typical household price movement.

Negative-price exposure

How often did a market fall below zero?

Top 12 markets by share of qualifying observed days with at least one negative interval. Bar length uses the actual percentage on a 0–100% scale.

🇪🇸 Spain53/90 days58.9%
🇵🇹 Portugal35/90 days38.9%
🇫🇷 France26/90 days28.9%
🇬🇷 Greece15/90 days16.7%
🇩🇪 Germany / Luxembourg bidding zone14/90 days15.6%
🇱🇺 Luxembourg12/90 days13.3%
🇦🇹 Austria12/90 days13.3%
🇸🇮 Slovenia9/90 days10.0%
🇳🇱 Netherlands9/90 days10.0%
🇬🇧 Great Britain wholesale7/78 days9.0%
🇭🇷 Croatia8/90 days8.9%
🇧🇪 Belgium7/90 days7.8%

Full market table

Negative prices, spread and cheapest window.

How the comparison works ↓

Published wholesale reference-price observations. Rank uses the share of each market's qualifying observed days containing at least one negative-price interval.
Rank	Market	Observed days	Negative days	Negative intervals	Avg daily spread	Common cheapest 3h	Coverage
1	SpainJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	58.9%53 days	0.64%53/8,334 intervals	91.6EUR/MWh	12:00-15:0019 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
2	PortugalJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	38.9%35 days	0.53%35/6,644 intervals	72.4EUR/MWh	11:00-14:0016 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
3	FranceJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	28.9%26 days	0.31%26/8,258 intervals	113.2EUR/MWh	03:00-06:0028 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
4	GreeceJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	16.7%15 days	0.19%15/7,826 intervals	155.3EUR/MWh	12:00-15:0021 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
5	Germany / Luxembourg bidding zoneGermany household prices · Luxembourg household pricesJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	15.6%14 days	0.16%14/8,492 intervals	122.6EUR/MWh	12:00-15:0018 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
6	LuxembourgJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	13.3%12 days	0.56%12/2,159 intervals	98.7EUR/MWh	11:00-14:0023 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
7	AustriaJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	13.3%12 days	0.14%12/8,630 intervals	134.4EUR/MWh	02:00-05:0024 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
8	SloveniaJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	10.0%9 days	0.11%9/8,570 intervals	132.9EUR/MWh	11:00-14:0022 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
9	NetherlandsJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	10.0%9 days	0.10%9/8,588 intervals	118.6EUR/MWh	02:00-05:0021 days · local time	99.4%up to 1 price area
10	Great Britain wholesaleJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	78/90	9.0%7 days	0.19%7/3,742 intervals	77.4EUR/MWh	02:00-05:0015 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
11	CroatiaJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	8.9%8 days	0.09%8/8,613 intervals	138.9EUR/MWh	11:00-14:0022 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
12	BelgiumJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	7.8%7 days	0.08%7/8,608 intervals	111.7EUR/MWh	02:00-05:0023 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
13	HungaryJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	6.7%6 days	0.07%6/8,597 intervals	181.6EUR/MWh	11:00-14:0025 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
14	CzechiaJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	6.7%6 days	0.07%6/8,610 intervals	130.6EUR/MWh	11:00-14:0026 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
15	SlovakiaJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	6.7%6 days	0.07%6/8,612 intervals	150.7EUR/MWh	11:00-14:0025 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
16	BulgariaJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	5.6%5 days	0.06%5/8,392 intervals	171.5EUR/MWh	03:00-06:0019 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
17	RomaniaJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	5.6%5 days	0.06%5/8,414 intervals	173.3EUR/MWh	03:00-06:0018 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
18	DenmarkJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	3.3%3 days	0.02%3/17,144 intervals	124.5EUR/MWh	02:00-05:0019 days · local time	100.0%up to 2 price areas
19	LatviaJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	2.2%2 days	0.02%2/8,343 intervals	199.8EUR/MWh	02:00-05:0018 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
20	LithuaniaJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	2.2%2 days	0.02%2/8,351 intervals	199.9EUR/MWh	02:00-05:0018 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
21	SwedenJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	2.2%2 days	0.01%2/34,244 intervals	86.6EUR/MWh	02:00-05:0022 days · local time	100.0%up to 4 price areas
22	SwitzerlandWholesale market onlyJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	1.1%1 days	0.05%1/2,123 intervals	58.7EUR/MWh	02:00-05:0034 days · local time	98.3%up to 1 price area
23	FinlandJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	1.1%1 days	0.01%1/8,432 intervals	110.5EUR/MWh	02:00-05:0017 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
24	EstoniaJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	0.0%0 days	0.00%0/8,273 intervals	193.9EUR/MWh	02:00-05:0017 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
25	North MacedoniaJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	84/90	0.0%0 days	0.00%0/1,924 intervals	127.7EUR/MWh	02:00-05:0022 days · local time	95.5%up to 1 price area
26	SerbiaJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	85/90	0.0%0 days	0.00%0/1,987 intervals	124.0EUR/MWh	11:00-14:0020 days · local time	97.4%up to 1 price area
27	IrelandJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	0.0%0 days	0.00%0/2,154 intervals	105.1EUR/MWh	03:00-06:0020 days · local time	99.8%up to 1 price area
28	MontenegroJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	80/90	0.0%0 days	0.00%0/1,825 intervals	100.4EUR/MWh	11:00-14:0020 days · local time	95.1%up to 1 price area
29	ItalyJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	0.0%0 days	0.00%0/51,754 intervals	82.9EUR/MWh	02:00-05:0024 days · local time	100.0%up to 7 price areas
30	NorwayJan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026	90/90	0.0%0 days	0.00%0/42,518 intervals	64.8EUR/MWh	02:00-05:0022 days · local time	100.0%up to 5 price areas

For households

Wholesale movement is a signal, not your bill.

Negative wholesale prices do not automatically mean free household electricity. Supplier margins, network charges, taxes, fixed fees and tariff rules still apply. Timing becomes directly relevant only when a retail tariff passes market changes through quickly enough.

The linked market names open GridPassport's separate household-price benchmarks where Eurostat coverage exists. For the practical layer, read what negative prices can mean at home.

Methodology

Comparable periods, visible limitations.

The rules exclude partial current days and require each displayed market to cover most of the exact report period.

Included observations

Only dates inside Jan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026 and rows with at least 80% usable source coverage. Each displayed market needs at least 72 of 90 days (80%).

Negative-price measures

A negative-price day contains at least one reported market interval below €0/MWh. Interval share divides negative intervals by all usable intervals. Resolutions differ, so intervals are not described as hours.

Volatility proxy

Daily spread is the highest minus lowest published wholesale reference point in the market aggregation. Its mean is a descriptive range, not a statistical volatility forecast.

Cheapest three-hour window

For each market-day, GridPassport identifies the cheapest contiguous three-hour wholesale reference window. The most frequent local-clock label is descriptive, not a recommended household schedule.

Market comparison limits

Multi-area markets use GridPassport's existing aggregation. The Germany/Luxembourg bidding zone and the separate Luxembourg source row use distinct source representations; their household links are therefore shown explicitly rather than treating the zone as one country.

No household or ROI claim

Values are wholesale reference prices normalized to EUR/MWh. They exclude retail components and do not calculate household bills, battery value, charging savings or product ROI.

Freshness and sources

Published market data with source links.

The aggregate was built Aug 30, 2026, 01:16 GMT+2 from observations updated as late as May 31, 2026, 18:36 GMT+2. Operators may revise historical values; a later correction can update the same stable report URL.

Elexon BMRS Open DataData source Terms
ENTSO-E Transparency PlatformData source Terms
SMARD BundesnetzagenturData source Terms
GridPassport transformations and attributionData licence notes

Completed periods only

Quarterly reports.

A quarter appears here only after the full period and coverage checks pass. Monthly evidence remains in the existing wholesale archive rather than a duplicate report series.

Q1 202630 qualifying markets

Jan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026 · 90/90 published dates

Q2 202628 qualifying markets

Apr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026 · 91/91 published dates

Open data

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