GridPassport Research · Q2 2026 edition

Q2 2026: where European electricity markets moved most

Name: Q2 2026 European Electricity Volatility Report
Creator: GridPassport
License: https://gridpassport.com/electricity-prices/methodology/#data-license-attribution

See where wholesale prices fell below zero most often, which markets recorded the widest daily swings and when the cheapest three-hour windows most often appeared. The comparison uses published observations—not forecasts, household tariffs or modelled savings.

See the market results What this can mean at home

Period: Apr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026
Qualifying markets: 28
Published dates: 91/91
Latest source update: Jul 27, 2026, 21:29 GMT+2

What the data says

Three useful signals—not one opaque score.

Negative-price frequency, within-day spread and a recurring cheap window answer different questions, so this report keeps them separate.

Most negative-price days🇪🇸 Spain79.1%

72 of 91 qualifying days contained at least one reported interval below €0/MWh.

Widest average daily spread🇭🇺 Hungary300.4 EUR/MWh

Mean of each observed day's high-minus-low wholesale reference price. This is not a household tariff spread.

Most common cheapest 3h window12:00-15:00local market time

The most frequent label across 896 qualifying market-day observations; individual markets differ.

Q2 2026 findings

What changed from Q1 2026.

Quarter-on-quarter changes use only the 28 markets that passed the same completeness rules in both periods.

Largest rise in negative-price days🇦🇹 Austria+39.4 pp

13.3% in Q1 2026 → 52.7% in Q2 2026.

Largest rise in average daily spread🇭🇺 Hungary+118.8 EUR/MWh

181.6 → 300.4 EUR/MWh.

Broadest negative-price dayMay 24, 202624 markets

At least one negative interval appeared in 24 of 28 qualifying observed markets.

Widest single observed daily spread🇸🇮 Slovenia1,005.5 EUR/MWh

Jun 30, 2026; one dated market observation, not a typical household price movement.

27 of 28 comparable markets changed their most frequent cheapest three-hour window. A recurring wholesale window is evidence to inspect—not a household charging recommendation by itself.

Negative-price exposure

How often did a market fall below zero?

Top 12 markets by share of qualifying observed days with at least one negative interval. Bar length uses the actual percentage on a 0–100% scale.

🇪🇸 Spain72/91 days79.1%
🇫🇷 France56/91 days61.5%
🇬🇷 Greece50/90 days55.6%
🇦🇹 Austria48/91 days52.7%
🇵🇹 Portugal47/91 days51.6%
🇩🇪 Germany / Luxembourg bidding zone46/91 days50.5%
🇱🇺 Luxembourg43/90 days47.8%
🇳🇱 Netherlands43/90 days47.8%
🇨🇿 Czechia41/91 days45.1%
🇧🇪 Belgium39/91 days42.9%
🇭🇺 Hungary38/90 days42.2%
🇸🇰 Slovakia37/90 days41.1%

Full market table

Negative prices, spread and cheapest window.

How the comparison works ↓

Published wholesale reference-price observations. Rank uses the share of each market's qualifying observed days containing at least one negative-price interval.
Rank	Market	Observed days	Negative days	Negative intervals	Avg daily spread	Common cheapest 3h	Coverage
1	SpainApr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026	91/91	79.1%72 days	0.84%72/8,544 intervals	128.5EUR/MWh	13:00-16:0023 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
2	FranceApr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026	91/91	61.5%56 days	0.71%56/7,917 intervals	152.7EUR/MWh	13:00-16:0030 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
3	GreeceApr 1, 2026–Jun 29, 2026	90/91	55.6%50 days	0.70%50/7,138 intervals	191.2EUR/MWh	11:00-14:0016 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
4	AustriaApr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026	91/91	52.7%48 days	0.55%48/8,732 intervals	220.7EUR/MWh	12:00-15:0067 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
5	PortugalApr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026	91/91	51.6%47 days	0.68%47/6,889 intervals	118.5EUR/MWh	13:00-16:0023 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
6	Germany / Luxembourg bidding zoneGermany household prices · Luxembourg household pricesApr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026	91/91	50.5%46 days	0.55%46/8,376 intervals	227.9EUR/MWh	12:00-15:0059 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
7	LuxembourgApr 1, 2026–Jun 29, 2026	90/91	47.8%43 days	1.99%43/2,160 intervals	186.5EUR/MWh	12:00-15:0055 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
8	NetherlandsApr 1, 2026–Jun 29, 2026	90/91	47.8%43 days	0.51%43/8,504 intervals	222.1EUR/MWh	12:00-15:0049 days · local time	98.4%up to 1 price area
9	CzechiaApr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026	91/91	45.1%41 days	0.48%41/8,607 intervals	210.9EUR/MWh	12:00-15:0051 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
10	BelgiumApr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026	91/91	42.9%39 days	0.45%39/8,585 intervals	218.7EUR/MWh	12:00-15:0042 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
11	HungaryApr 1, 2026–Jun 29, 2026	90/91	42.2%38 days	0.45%38/8,467 intervals	300.4EUR/MWh	12:00-15:0051 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
12	SlovakiaApr 1, 2026–Jun 29, 2026	90/91	41.1%37 days	0.43%37/8,516 intervals	222.7EUR/MWh	12:00-15:0052 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
13	SloveniaApr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026	91/91	40.7%37 days	0.43%37/8,587 intervals	223.4EUR/MWh	12:00-15:0045 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
14	SwitzerlandWholesale market onlyApr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026	90/91	36.7%33 days	1.54%33/2,140 intervals	140.3EUR/MWh	12:00-15:0058 days · local time	99.1%up to 1 price area
15	CroatiaApr 1, 2026–Jun 29, 2026	90/91	35.6%32 days	0.38%32/8,520 intervals	220.8EUR/MWh	12:00-15:0047 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
16	RomaniaApr 1, 2026–Jun 29, 2026	90/91	27.8%25 days	0.30%25/8,236 intervals	255.0EUR/MWh	13:00-16:0043 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
17	BulgariaApr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026	91/91	24.2%22 days	0.27%22/8,208 intervals	200.8EUR/MWh	13:00-16:0027 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
18	DenmarkApr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026	91/91	22.0%20 days	0.12%20/17,190 intervals	187.7EUR/MWh	12:00-15:0046 days · local time	100.0%up to 2 price areas
19	Great Britain wholesaleApr 2, 2026–Jun 30, 2026	84/91	14.3%12 days	0.30%12/4,013 intervals	97.0EUR/MWh	12:00-15:0022 days · local time	99.5%up to 1 price area
20	LithuaniaApr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026	91/91	13.2%12 days	0.14%12/8,608 intervals	155.6EUR/MWh	13:00-16:0032 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
21	SwedenApr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026	91/91	13.2%12 days	0.03%12/34,430 intervals	94.4EUR/MWh	13:00-16:0035 days · local time	100.0%up to 4 price areas
22	LatviaApr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026	91/91	12.1%11 days	0.13%11/8,594 intervals	155.7EUR/MWh	13:00-16:0030 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
23	FinlandApr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026	91/91	9.9%9 days	0.11%9/8,505 intervals	92.9EUR/MWh	14:00-17:0024 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
24	EstoniaApr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026	91/91	8.8%8 days	0.09%8/8,477 intervals	140.3EUR/MWh	14:00-17:0023 days · local time	100.0%up to 1 price area
25	SerbiaApr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026	79/91	7.6%6 days	0.32%6/1,854 intervals	156.2EUR/MWh	12:00-15:0029 days · local time	97.8%up to 1 price area
26	NorwayApr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026	91/91	4.4%4 days	0.01%4/42,912 intervals	70.4EUR/MWh	13:00-16:0027 days · local time	100.0%up to 5 price areas
27	IrelandApr 2, 2026–Jun 30, 2026	75/91	1.3%1 days	0.06%1/1,791 intervals	106.5EUR/MWh	13:00-16:0034 days · local time	99.5%up to 1 price area
28	ItalyApr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026	91/91	0.0%0 days	0.00%0/51,681 intervals	139.2EUR/MWh	12:00-15:0035 days · local time	100.0%up to 7 price areas

For households

Wholesale movement is a signal, not your bill.

Negative wholesale prices do not automatically mean free household electricity. Supplier margins, network charges, taxes, fixed fees and tariff rules still apply. Timing becomes directly relevant only when a retail tariff passes market changes through quickly enough.

The linked market names open GridPassport's separate household-price benchmarks where Eurostat coverage exists. For the practical layer, read what negative prices can mean at home.

Methodology

Comparable periods, visible limitations.

The rules exclude partial current days and require each displayed market to cover most of the exact report period.

Included observations

Only dates inside Apr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026 and rows with at least 80% usable source coverage. Each displayed market needs at least 73 of 91 days (80%).

Negative-price measures

A negative-price day contains at least one reported market interval below €0/MWh. Interval share divides negative intervals by all usable intervals. Resolutions differ, so intervals are not described as hours.

Volatility proxy

Daily spread is the highest minus lowest published wholesale reference point in the market aggregation. Its mean is a descriptive range, not a statistical volatility forecast.

Cheapest three-hour window

For each market-day, GridPassport identifies the cheapest contiguous three-hour wholesale reference window. The most frequent local-clock label is descriptive, not a recommended household schedule.

Market comparison limits

Multi-area markets use GridPassport's existing aggregation. The Germany/Luxembourg bidding zone and the separate Luxembourg source row use distinct source representations; their household links are therefore shown explicitly rather than treating the zone as one country.

No household or ROI claim

Values are wholesale reference prices normalized to EUR/MWh. They exclude retail components and do not calculate household bills, battery value, charging savings or product ROI.

Freshness and sources

Published market data with source links.

The aggregate was built Aug 30, 2026, 01:16 GMT+2 from observations updated as late as Jul 27, 2026, 21:29 GMT+2. Operators may revise historical values; a later correction can update the same stable report URL.

Elexon BMRS Open DataData source Terms
ENTSO-E Transparency PlatformData source Terms
SMARD BundesnetzagenturData source Terms
GridPassport transformations and attributionData licence notes

Completed periods only

Quarterly reports.

A quarter appears here only after the full period and coverage checks pass. Monthly evidence remains in the existing wholesale archive rather than a duplicate report series.

Q1 202630 qualifying markets

Jan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026 · 90/90 published dates

Q2 202628 qualifying markets

Apr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026 · 91/91 published dates

Open data

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