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GridPassport Research · Q3 2026 edition

Q3 2026: where European electricity markets moved most

See where wholesale prices fell below zero most often, which markets recorded the widest daily swings and when the cheapest three-hour windows most often appeared. The comparison uses published observations—not forecasts, household tariffs or modelled savings.

See the market resultsWhat this can mean at home
Period
Jul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 2026
Qualifying markets
28
Published dates
92/92
Latest source update
Oct 4, 2026, 01:16 GMT+2

What the data says

Three useful signals—not one opaque score.

Negative-price frequency, within-day spread and a recurring cheap window answer different questions, so this report keeps them separate.

Most negative-price days🇪🇸 Spain38.0%

35 of 92 qualifying days contained at least one reported interval below €0/MWh.

Widest average daily spread🇷🇴 Romania243.3 EUR/MWh

Mean of each observed day's high-minus-low wholesale reference price. This is not a household tariff spread.

Most common cheapest 3h window12:00-15:00local market time

The most frequent label across 862 qualifying market-day observations; individual markets differ.

Q3 2026 findings

What changed from Q2 2026.

Quarter-on-quarter changes use only the 25 markets that passed the same completeness rules in both periods.

Largest rise in negative-price days🇬🇧 Great Britain wholesale+3.1 pp

14.3% in Q2 2026 → 17.4% in Q3 2026.

Largest rise in average daily spread🇪🇸 Spain+73.4 EUR/MWh

128.5 → 201.9 EUR/MWh.

Broadest negative-price daySep 20, 202619 markets

At least one negative interval appeared in 19 of 26 qualifying observed markets.

Widest single observed daily spread🇸🇮 Slovenia677.1 EUR/MWh

Aug 3, 2026; one dated market observation, not a typical household price movement.

2 of 25 comparable markets changed their most frequent cheapest three-hour window. A recurring wholesale window is evidence to inspect—not a household charging recommendation by itself.

Negative-price exposure

How often did a market fall below zero?

Top 12 markets by share of qualifying observed days with at least one negative interval. Bar length uses the actual percentage on a 0–100% scale.

  1. 🇪🇸 Spain35/92 days38.0%
  2. 🇳🇱 Netherlands33/90 days36.7%
  3. 🇱🇺 Luxembourg32/90 days35.6%
  4. 🇩🇪 Germany / Luxembourg bidding zone30/92 days32.6%
  5. 🇫🇷 France24/87 days27.6%
  6. 🇧🇪 Belgium24/92 days26.1%
  7. 🇵🇱 Poland22/92 days23.9%
  8. 🇦🇹 Austria17/92 days18.5%
  9. 🇬🇧 Great Britain wholesale16/92 days17.4%
  10. 🇨🇿 Czechia15/92 days16.3%
  11. 🇨🇭 Switzerland14/91 days15.4%
  12. 🇸🇰 Slovakia12/90 days13.3%

Full market table

Negative prices, spread and cheapest window.

How the comparison works ↓
Published wholesale reference-price observations. Rank uses the share of each market's qualifying observed days containing at least one negative-price interval.
RankMarketObserved daysNegative daysNegative intervalsAvg daily spreadCommon cheapest 3hCoverage
1SpainJul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 202692/9238.0%35 days0.40%35/8,717 intervals201.9EUR/MWh13:00-16:0032 days · local time98.7%up to 1 price area
2NetherlandsJul 2, 2026–Sep 30, 202690/9236.7%33 days0.39%33/8,529 intervals209.3EUR/MWh12:00-15:0049 days · local time98.7%up to 1 price area
3LuxembourgJul 2, 2026–Sep 30, 202690/9235.6%32 days1.48%32/2,160 intervals188.1EUR/MWh12:00-15:0051 days · local time100.0%up to 1 price area
4Germany / Luxembourg bidding zoneGermany household prices · Luxembourg household pricesJul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 202692/9232.6%30 days0.35%30/8,615 intervals202.2EUR/MWh12:00-15:0059 days · local time100.0%up to 1 price area
5FranceJul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 202687/9227.6%24 days0.30%24/7,947 intervals191.8EUR/MWh13:00-16:0038 days · local time95.2%up to 1 price area
6BelgiumJul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 202692/9226.1%24 days0.27%24/8,748 intervals194.0EUR/MWh12:00-15:0039 days · local time99.0%up to 1 price area
7PolandJul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 202692/9223.9%22 days0.25%22/8,832 intervals234.0EUR/MWh12:00-15:0052 days · local time100.0%up to 1 price area
8AustriaJul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 202692/9218.5%17 days0.20%17/8,688 intervals184.9EUR/MWh12:00-15:0056 days · local time100.0%up to 1 price area
9Great Britain wholesaleJul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 202692/9217.4%16 days0.36%16/4,406 intervals120.9EUR/MWh12:00-15:0025 days · local time99.8%up to 1 price area
10CzechiaJul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 202692/9216.3%15 days0.17%15/8,766 intervals206.4EUR/MWh12:00-15:0055 days · local time99.3%up to 1 price area
11SwitzerlandWholesale market onlyJul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 202691/9215.4%14 days0.65%14/2,157 intervals135.6EUR/MWh12:00-15:0056 days · local time98.8%up to 1 price area
12SlovakiaJul 2, 2026–Sep 30, 202690/9213.3%12 days0.14%12/8,561 intervals229.1EUR/MWh12:00-15:0040 days · local time99.1%up to 1 price area
13RomaniaJul 2, 2026–Sep 30, 202690/9211.1%10 days0.12%10/8,485 intervals243.3EUR/MWh13:00-16:0035 days · local time98.2%up to 1 price area
14HungaryJul 2, 2026–Sep 30, 202690/9211.1%10 days0.12%10/8,529 intervals241.1EUR/MWh12:00-15:0034 days · local time98.7%up to 1 price area
15SloveniaJul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 202692/9210.9%10 days0.11%10/8,721 intervals228.9EUR/MWh12:00-15:0033 days · local time98.7%up to 1 price area
16CroatiaJul 2, 2026–Sep 30, 202690/9210.0%9 days0.11%9/8,558 intervals229.5EUR/MWh12:00-15:0035 days · local time99.1%up to 1 price area
17DenmarkJul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 202692/927.6%7 days0.04%7/17,537 intervals197.4EUR/MWh12:00-15:0044 days · local time99.3%up to 2 price areas
18SwedenJul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 202691/924.4%4 days0.01%4/34,308 intervals93.2EUR/MWh13:00-16:0023 days · local time98.2%up to 4 price areas
19BulgariaJul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 202687/923.4%3 days0.04%3/8,132 intervals210.8EUR/MWh13:00-16:0024 days · local time97.4%up to 1 price area
20FinlandJul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 202690/922.2%2 days0.02%2/8,408 intervals71.6EUR/MWh00:00-03:0018 days · local time97.3%up to 1 price area
21EstoniaJul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 202688/921.1%1 days0.01%1/8,238 intervals168.3EUR/MWh14:00-17:0016 days · local time97.5%up to 1 price area
22LithuaniaJul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 202691/921.1%1 days0.01%1/8,608 intervals177.9EUR/MWh13:00-16:0029 days · local time98.5%up to 1 price area
23LatviaJul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 202691/920.0%0 days0.00%0/8,578 intervals177.8EUR/MWh13:00-16:0025 days · local time98.2%up to 1 price area
24North MacedoniaJul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 202685/920.0%0 days0.00%0/1,994 intervals173.3EUR/MWh10:00-13:0030 days · local time97.7%up to 1 price area
25MontenegroJul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 202684/920.0%0 days0.00%0/1,900 intervals162.5EUR/MWh11:00-14:0026 days · local time94.2%up to 1 price area
26ItalyJul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 202690/920.0%0 days0.00%0/55,096 intervals144.7EUR/MWh12:00-15:0038 days · local time93.9%up to 7 price areas
27IrelandJul 1, 2026–Sep 29, 202689/920.0%0 days0.00%0/2,126 intervals118.9EUR/MWh13:00-16:0024 days · local time99.5%up to 1 price area
28NorwayJul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 202692/920.0%0 days0.00%0/42,766 intervals65.5EUR/MWh12:00-15:0028 days · local time97.7%up to 5 price areas

For households

Wholesale movement is a signal, not your bill.

Negative wholesale prices do not automatically mean free household electricity. Supplier margins, network charges, taxes, fixed fees and tariff rules still apply. Timing becomes directly relevant only when a retail tariff passes market changes through quickly enough.

The linked market names open GridPassport's separate household-price benchmarks where Eurostat coverage exists. For the practical layer, read what negative prices can mean at home.

Methodology

Comparable periods, visible limitations.

The rules exclude partial current days and require each displayed market to cover most of the exact report period.

01

Included observations

Only dates inside Jul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 2026 and rows with at least 80% usable source coverage. Each displayed market needs at least 74 of 92 days (80%).

02

Negative-price measures

A negative-price day contains at least one reported market interval below €0/MWh. Interval share divides negative intervals by all usable intervals. Resolutions differ, so intervals are not described as hours.

03

Volatility proxy

Daily spread is the highest minus lowest published wholesale reference point in the market aggregation. Its mean is a descriptive range, not a statistical volatility forecast.

04

Cheapest three-hour window

For each market-day, GridPassport identifies the cheapest contiguous three-hour wholesale reference window. The most frequent local-clock label is descriptive, not a recommended household schedule.

05

Market comparison limits

Multi-area markets use GridPassport's existing aggregation. The Germany/Luxembourg bidding zone and the separate Luxembourg source row use distinct source representations; their household links are therefore shown explicitly rather than treating the zone as one country.

06

No household or ROI claim

Values are wholesale reference prices normalized to EUR/MWh. They exclude retail components and do not calculate household bills, battery value, charging savings or product ROI.

Freshness and sources

Published market data with source links.

The aggregate was built Oct 4, 2026, 23:14 GMT+2 from observations updated as late as Oct 4, 2026, 01:16 GMT+2. Operators may revise historical values; a later correction can update the same stable report URL.

Completed periods only

Quarterly reports.

A quarter appears here only after the full period and coverage checks pass. Monthly evidence remains in the existing wholesale archive rather than a duplicate report series.

Q1 202630 qualifying markets

Jan 1, 2026–Mar 31, 2026 · 90/90 published dates

Q2 202628 qualifying markets

Apr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026 · 91/91 published dates

Q3 202628 qualifying markets

Jul 1, 2026–Sep 30, 2026 · 92/92 published dates

Continue exploring

Use the right layer for the question.

Daily evidenceInspect wholesale market rankings

Open the underlying daily and monthly views before interpreting an outlier.

Household layerCompare household electricity prices

Use the separate Eurostat benchmark when the question is what households pay.

Consumer guideUnderstand negative prices at home

See how tariffs and bill components determine whether wholesale timing reaches a household.

Open data

Need the numbers behind this report?

Download one aggregate row per market, including the exact period, denominator, negative-price frequency, spread, recurring window, coverage and source names.

Download this period as CSV

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